Bird’s Eye: It is stretching to call Berlusconi’s defeat a rightward swing (more likely the Italians got tired of too much bungle-bungle), but the left in Greece in on the verge of collapse, in Portugal they’ve been ousted, in Turkey Erdogan (centre-right) consolidates his power, and everywhere (except Turkey, obviously) the anti-Islamic parties are gaining support. Here are some analyses, starting with specifics and moving to the general.
* Portugal swings right The Guardian
Portugal has moved sharply to the right after a general election saw socialist prime minister José Sócrates ousted by opposition leader Pedro Passos Coelho as the country voted under the shadow of a €78bn euro bailout package….Sócrates admitted defeat and said he would stand down as party leader. “The Socialist party lost these elections,” he said.
The vote saw yet another left-wing government ejected from power in Europe because of the economic crisis, with the socialists paying heavily for the sharp downturn that forced the country to seek a financial rescue package. Only five left-wing-led governments now remain among the 27 member states – in Spain, Greece, Austria, Slovenia and Cyprus.
* Greece In Turmoil As Papandreou Tries To Salvage Government The Guardian
The economic and social mayhem gripping Europe’s peripheries appeared to have claimed the scalp of another government after the Greek prime minister admitted he could not drive through reforms to shore up the beleaguered economy, and offered to make way for a government of national unity.
After a day on which tens of thousands marched on parliament to oppose the swingeing austerity measures designed to stave off bankruptcy, George Papandreou effectively conceded that he had not been able to muster enough support in parliament for the swingeing cuts required by international creditors to enable Greece to balance its books.
* Turkey: Admiration And Apprehension The Guardian
Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, boasts an election-winning record of which other European leaders can only dream. Sunday’sgeneral election victory for his AKP party was not just his third in a row. It was also his most emphatic yet. When the AKP first won power in 2002, it got 10.7m votes and a 34.3% share. On Sunday, on an 87% turnout that puts other countries to shame, Mr Erdogan hoisted those figures to 21.4m (double his 2002 support) and a 49.9% share. Bizarrely, under Turkey’s idiosyncratic proportional representation system, this means the AKP now has 326 members in the 550-seat parliament, compared with 363 in 2002. But this decline in AKP seats, though politically very important, should not detract from a stellar electoral achievement.
Mr Erdogan commands the Turkish political scene thanks to one factor above all – the economy. Turkey continues to grow at around 9% a year; GDP per head has nearly doubled since 2002; and Turkish exports have nearly tripled. In particular, the AKP has delivered a transformation in life chances for the largely rural, predominantly religiously conservative but highly entrepreneurial Anatolian Turks who form its power base. Life across many parts of central and eastern Turkey is incomparably better today than 20 years ago. In the election campaign Mr Erdogan promised major new public works to carry the momentum further. While other European politicians battle to avoid the blame for economic downturn, Mr Erdogan claims the credit for economic success and as a result surges onward politically.
* Berlusconi’s nuclear power plans crushed The Guardian
The anti-nuclear movement won a crushing victory in Italy on Monday when well over 90% of voters rejected Silvio Berlusconi’s plans for a return to nuclear power generation.
The result represented an overwhelming setback for the prime minister, who had tried to thwart the outcome by discouraging Italians from taking part. The referendum needed a turnout of at least 50% to be binding. Interior ministry figures projections indicated that more than 57% of the electorate had taken part. Greenpeace called it a historic result. Quorums were also reached in three other referendums held simultaneously – the first time in 16 years that a quorum had been achieved in any referendum in Italy.
Official projections showed more than 95% of voters rejecting water privatisation and a law allowing Berlusconi and other ministers to cite government business as a reason for delaying trials in which they were defendants. The expected majority against nuclear power was 94%…. The ballot was also the latest, and most persuasive, evidence that a majority of Italians have turned against their flamboyant prime minister.
* While The European Left Dithers, The Right Marches Menacingly On Will Hutton The Observer
The longer the left’s response is confused, the more the populist right has begun to make anti-immigrant attitudes culturally acceptable. Unless a quick response can be found to the economic dislocation, uncertain job prospects and sense that European states cannot offer their populations security that is feeding the current mood, noxious attitudes will start to become culturally and politically entrenched. …For what is unifying all Europe’s populist right is outright hostility to Muslims. What has triggered the attack on the Schengen Agreement is fear of another wave of Muslim immigrants from north Africa. But immigration controls are only as strong as their weakest link – and every national European politician is prey to electors’ fears that the EU or another country is just that weakest link. Thus the descent into beggar my neighbour anti-immigration policies. But these quickly become beggar my neighbour tax and trade policies. It is a culture of closure, negation and mutual suspicion.
To stop this movement becoming a stampede, the European left has to find a more certain voice. It must argue passionately for a good capitalism that will drive growth, employment and living standards by a redoubled commitment to innovation and investment. It must spearhead the case for new international rules of governance that can make citizens believe that globalisation is not a terrifying threat; it need not be a charter for bankers making dynastic fortunes for doing nothing valuable, nor an unstoppable force homogenising national cultures.