Bird’s Eye: Besides geography, what do Syria, Israel, Palestine, and Afghanistan have in common? The legitimacy of their governments is under severe attack. “Don’t speak too soon for the wheel’s still in spin, and there’s no tellin’ who that it’s naming. For the losers now may be later to win, for the times they are a changing”, as Mr Z. once sang.
* Syria: Al-Assad’s Last Roar Al-Ahram Weekly
“What is being debated now is ending the regime of Al-Assad, one way or another,” says a source within the Cairo-based Syrian opposition. “Nobody, not even the Russians with whom we have been talking, or Iran, Al-Assad’s strongest ally, have any illusions about him remaining in power.” The consensus within political and diplomatic quarters is that 2012 will likely see the end of the rule of Bashar Al-Assad, the ophthalmologist who took over in 2000 from his father Hafez Al-Assad, Syria’s president since 1970.
“Bashar Al-Assad might be in denial. He might even believe what he said [on Tuesday], that what is happening in Syria is not an uprising against his rule but an attempt by some armed groups to overthrow him in order to destabilise Syria and undermine Iran and Hizbullah,” speculated one Arab diplomat.“This would be a wrong assessment. The key players have all decided Bashar must exit the stage. How that happens is something he can decide.”
* Afghanistan: The Dust Settles Eric Walberg
Obama’s record on foreign policy has been shocking in retrospect. His call from Cairo for a new dispensation in the Middle East soon after his vow to close Guantanamo, along with this vow, are now in history’s dustbin. His enthusiastic embrace of the worst of Bush’s policies, from drones, assassinations and mercenaries to Orwellian police-state security are frightening proof of the helplessness of US politicians these days.
No better evidence that this paralysis will make the next four years the most perilous in US history is found in the bloody news dripping out of Afghanistan. NATO soldiers, Afghan soldiers and police, resistance fighters, and, of course, women and children continue to be killed at alarming rates, even as the Taliban open an office in Qatar (originally denied by all parties). Peace negotiations came to a standstill last year after the assassination of High Peace Council chief Burhanudin Rabbani (Afghan president 1992-96) by a visitor posing as a peace messenger from the Taliban.
The idea is to whip into shape an Afghan security force/ army and hand over nominal power by the end of 2014. But this force will be predominantly northern Tajik-speaking Afghans who make up only 28 per cent of the population and form the backbone of the current government. Less than 10 per cent of officers are Pashtun (vs 42 per cent of Afghans), and in any case the army attrition rate is 30 per cent, not to mention the infiltration rate of Taliban suicide martyrs.
Just as in 2012 in Iraq, we can expect some kind of handover in 2014 — the US people and economy simply cannot bear much more, but it will be to a chaotic police state, headed by the weak, discredited Hamid Karzai, with a confusing mix of army, police and mercenaries, much like the situation Afghanistan faced in 1993, at the end of the last US-Afghan love-in, in the 1980s. By 1996 a violent civil war had brought the country to a stand-still and the Taliban was the only way out. This scenario is about to repeat itself.
* Israel: French Parliament Report Accuses Israel Of Water ‘Apartheid’ In West Bank Haaretz
The French parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee published an unprecedented report two weeks ago accusing Israel of implementing “apartheid” policies in its allocation of water resources in the West Bank.
…The report said that water has become “a weapon serving the new apartheid” and gave examples and statistics that ostensibly back this claim. “Some 450,000 Israeli settlers on the West Bank use more water than the 2.3 million Palestinians that live there,” the report said. “In times of drought, in contravention of international law, the settlers get priority for water.”
….Senior [Israeli] Foreign Ministry officials said the Paris embassy had been asleep at the switch. “This report is a serious mishap that has caused diplomatic damage and has seriously damaged Israel’s image in France,” one senior official said.
* Palestine: The ‘Invented People’ Stand Little Chance Robert Fisk (Thanks, Gabe)
In the United States, where Netanyahu received so many standing ovations from a Congress that apparently thought it was the Knesset – far more ovations than he would ever have received in the real Knesset in Jerusalem – Israel is increasingly relying on the support of Christian fundamentalists.
This support has now coalesced with the Republican Party against Obama – whose grovelling to Netanyahu has won him no new friends – so that over recent years, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is routinely used to attack the Democrats. Having once been sustained by the progressive left, Israel now draws its principal support from right-wing conservatism of a particularly unpleasant kind. Christian evangelicals believe that all Jews will die if they do not convert to Christianity on the coming of the Messiah. And right-wing racists in Europe – the most prominent of them being Dutch – are welcome in Israel, while the likes of Noam Chomsky and Norman Finkelstein are not.


