Bird’s-Eye: Iran announced a deal with Turkey and Brazil over the nuclear enrichment issue. (Short summary: Turkey enriches Iranian fuel enough for medical use, not enough for bomb). But the US presses on with UN sanction

demands. Why? Maybe because Iran has promised this before, and reneged. Maybe because it isn’t their deal. Maybe to make sure Iran does sign the deal. Let us explain….

* Iran Announces Breakthrough Nuclear Exchange Deal Juan Cole Informed Comment

This deal is virtually the same as the one agreed to by Iran at Geneva last October, on which it promptly reneged. The only difference is that Turkey has been added as a sort of escrow-holder for the Iranian stock of low enriched uranium. Why that change suddenly would make the deal palatable to the hardliners who torpedoed the last such agreement is mysterious…. It is possible that the Iranian leadership, especially top cleric Ali Khamenei, were persuaded by interlocutors such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, who warned that in the absence of such an agreement, Iran would increasingly face crippling international sanctions of the sort that virtually destroyed Iraq. These four countries, called BRIC, have emerged as a second tier of world power after the G7 advanced capitalist parliamentary powers of the West plus Japan, led by the US. Brazil and Turkey engaged in intensive last-minute negotiations with Iran. It would be wise to see this announcement as a preliminary gambit of some sort rather than as a done deal. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is correct that if it goes through, it puts the ball in the court of the West, especially of Barack Obama and the United States.

* Why the U.S. Should Welcome the Nuclear Deal with Iran | Stephen M. Walt

The first thing to note is that we’ve seen this movie before (or at least, we’ve seen something rather like it), and it remains to be seen whether any uranium will actually change hands. It’s possible that the whole thing is just a subterfuge designed to ward off stricter economic sanctions, and that eventually one of the signatories (most likely Iran) will find a way to wiggle out of the deal.

… Here’s why I think the United States should welcome the deal. The only feasible way out of the current box is via diplomacy, because military force won’t solve the problem for very long, could provoke a major Middle East war, and is more likely to strengthen the clerical regime and make the United States look like a bully with an inexhaustible appetite for attacking Muslim countries. (And having Israel try to do the job wouldn’t help, because we’d be blamed for it anyway). I think George Bush figured that out before he left office, and I think President Obama knows it too.

* “Give Turkey A Chance” Al Jazeera

Brazil and Turkey have growing ambitions in international affairs. Both countries are non-permanent members of the UN Security council who do not have veto power. Turkish officials had been in touch with their US counterparts thoughout negotiations with Iran, a Turkish foreign ministry spokesman said. The US and Turkey are strategic allies.  “Hillary Clinton [the US Secretary of State] did not want them [Brazil and Turkey] to fail but she never thought they would suceed. So the US went ahead with the sanctions draft,” our correspondent said.  ”If Iran signs the letter, then sanctions may not be an option. China might want to give the Brazil-Turkey deal a chance.”